What is the future of the German packaging industry? Myths and assumptions offer no reliable basis!

With the growing emphasis on sustainability, the packaging industry is coming under increasing scrutiny. Regulatory requirements — mandating recyclable packaging, the use of recycled content, or ideally the minimization of packaging altogether — are presenting multiple challenges to the sector. Ideally, no more plastic packaging, everything made of paper, and significantly less packaging overall — right? But how large is the German market today, and more importantly: how will it evolve in the coming years? These are the questions addressed by the new study from Apenberg & Partner.

Market Size Depends on Material Group and Product Segment

As with the broader German economy, the packaging industry is not immune to economic fluctuations. Currently, the German packaging market has a volume of approximately €30 billion. Apenberg & Partner forecasts an annual revenue decline of -5% through 2026. However, this does not apply equally to all material types or product categories. For instance, paper and cardboard packaging is shrinking alarmingly, despite widespread efforts to replace “bad plastic” with paper alternatives. Or is that simply a myth fueled by paper’s sustainable image?

What about metal and glass? Are these packaging materials becoming obsolete — or could they experience a resurgence? And is plastic truly being phased out and consistently replaced by other materials?

The Apenberg & Partner Packaging Forecast provides insights into specific material categories and product segments. The projections reveal which materials are more or less affected, and which product groups are showing positive developments contrary to the overall trend. The study offers companies a fact-based view of industry trends in Germany — grounded in data, not driven by common misconceptions or popular assumptions.

Not All Packaging Is Classified as Such

Not all packaging is officially recognized and recorded as part of the packaging sector by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office. Some grey areas include:

Composite (multi-material) packaging
Alternative plastics
Packaging formed only during the final packing process
Packaging aids and accessories

This means the actual size of the German packaging market is larger than clearly reported. And as long as packaging fulfills essential roles in product protection, handling, and communication, it will remain indispensable — even as the industry faces inevitable and necessary transformation.

New Legislation Shapes Business Strategy

Packaging is tightly linked to regulatory frameworks. A notable example is the ban on plastic bags, which has led to a sharp decline in the “plastic sacks and pouches” segment. The current hot topic: the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). This regulation includes a comprehensive set of rules, targets, and implementation timelines that companies must comply with.

While initial requirements are expected to take effect in mid-2026, companies should already begin aligning their business decisions with these anticipated changes — to avoid poor investments and ensure that early adjustments contribute to long-term success.

Gain Insights into the German Packaging Market

Get a clear picture of where the industry stands today by reading the new Apenberg & Partner study. Understand the risks and opportunities, and act in time.

Let’s work together to develop strategies that help you — as a packaging printer — focus on the right products and strengthen your market position through innovation and process optimization.